What happened on the Guadalupe — in public records, step by step
Two catastrophic floods hit the same basin twelve months apart. This investigation examines both using gauge records, driller’s logs, monitoring wells, LiDAR, and the State’s own filings — every figure sourced, every computation reproducible. Each one below stands on its own. Start wherever your question is.
The Digital Forensic Investigations
July 4, 2025 Precipitation vs Runoff and The Media’s Assumption
Mockingbird
Did the rain account for the water? — a public-records examination of rainfall, discharge, soil, and the river’s own numbers, step by step.
Enter the investigation →
July 16, 2026 Precipitation vs Runoff — The Impossible Equation
Checkmate
July 16, 2026 dropped more rain on the same basin, on saturated ground — and made barely 60% of the 2025 flood. Five pages: the ledger, the inversion, the control, the source, and the creek that flooded before the rain.
See the head-to-head →
One Page That Ends Any Doubt
Cavities
Where the drill bit found the voids: 723 driller logs across Kerr County — the caves, lost circulation, and gypsum that build the karst conduits, mapped well by well, each one linked to its TWDB record.
See every well →
The Flood Line, Measured
Camp Mystic — 3D
The camp in 1-meter LiDAR: the normal river, what the rain alone could do, and the surveyed flood — the three heights standing in the same place, cabin by cabin.
Walk the camp →